This has been a match up that the last three years has been decided by a total of 10 points with Navy taking 2 of three. A few weeks ago I may have liked Notre Dame, but Navy and Dobbs finally look healthy as they rattled off two impressive wins against SMU and Wake Forest. They came from 14 down to beat SMU and that really impressed me.
First of all SMU is the closest thing to Notre Dame that Navy has faced as SMU has a similar offensive attack with 28th ranked pass game vs. 70th run while Notre Dame is at 18/97. Difference is SMU's defense is a little better at 56th overall while Notre Dame at 82nd. SMU similar run stop 43rd was not able to hold Navy in check . Many think Navy can't beat Notre Dame through the air but I would not be surprised if Dobbs took some shots seeing as Notre Dame is so bad in stopping the pass. Notre Dame may rave about the run defense holding last 4 opponents to an average 79.5 yards on the ground but they faced some bad run offenses 107, 62, 103, and Stanford 23rd who ran for 166 yards.
Notre Dame comes in with 18th ranked passing attack but they have faced an average 80th ranked opponent. Navy is now ranked 9th in pass defense and that bodes well for Navy who seems to be one dimensional in my opinion. Crist won't be able to do whatever he wants in this neutral site game that is closer to home for Navy.
Navy in the red zone last 2 weeks are 8 for 9 with all 8 being touch downs. I think this game will be another tight game with possible OT written all over it, but in the end I think Navy has the better team and I think they pull off the win.
Weird line in this game as I feel Miami Ohio should be the favorites. This is not the same team that went 1-11 a year ago. Zac Dysert is looking dangerous and I think he posses a direct threat to Ohio who hasn't faced an offensive passing attack like this all year. Miami Ohio will throw the ball 80% of the time and should put up points here at home. They were able to get the win last week at Central Michigan which was a huge win for this team and I think they carry that confidence over to this week. Bowling Green has a similar one dimenstional passing approach and Matt Schilz was able to throw for 277 yards but the problem for Bowling Green in that game is they could not stop Ohio from running the ball. Miami Ohio is better suited to stop the run as they are ranked 49th vs. run defense.
In fact this is the best defense they have faced since Toledo. While Ohio's offense struggled early it's clicking in their last three games and that's why you see them favorites. But I'm not buying in their last three opponents had scoring defenses of 119, 109, and 113 while their total defenses were 106, 116, and 104. Now they averaged 39 pts per game during that time, but Miami Ohio ranked 69th have been tested this season by Central Mich 45th offense, Florida, Missouri 43rd, and Cinci 34th. Their defense is better than the stats say because of the tough schedule.
X-factor Ohio's pass rush... It's a key factor in this game as Miami Ohio and Zac Dysert will throw the ball all day as they did last week against a Central Michigan pass defense ranked 61st after they got beat for 399 yards 3 TD 0 interceptions. Miami Ohio also forced 4 turnovers and held Central Michigan to field goals int he red zone. I think they can do that again in a tight game that will have them winning.
